Guess who's coming to Sunday Game Night

Game Friends,

Here is a list of people who might show up to Game Night this Sunday, at or around 5pm, bearing food and/or drink to share, in roughly decreasing order of likelihood.

— Kyle
— Me
— Helen
— Trevor
— Lauren
— My brother Linus
— Jack
— Tall Brian
— My literal parents
— The Fieldses
— Jonathan
— Kate
— Alicia and/or Andy
— Short Brian
— Everyone else on this list
— Kaitlin
— That one celebrity you really like
— That one celebrity you really don’t like
— Obama

So if you want to hang out with any of those people (my brother! my parents! your friends!), please compute the probability that they will arrive, multiply by the amount you want to see them, send me the answer on a postcard, and then come to Game Night. There’s plenty of parking and if you don’t feel like playing games, there are usually some people just hanging out too.

Nathan

From: Jack
To: Nathan

I’m sorry Nathan, but you may have to decrease my rather stellar likelihood as a result of possible game of thrones events. It should be easy to do a Bayesian update, as p(Jack coming to game night | first episode of GoT airs concurrently) = p( first episode of GoT airs concurrently | Jack comes to game night) * p( first episode of got airs concurrently) / p(jack comes to game night). Pretty straightforward, right?